Morning Market Brief — Friday November 13 2026

Crypto Slumps, Yields Jump as PPI Looms Over Futures Bounce

Crypto sold off hard overnight, with bitcoin and ether both down sharply and sentiment stuck in Extreme Fear, a steeper drop than the modest gains building in equity futures, which point to a firmer open after Thursday’s declines across the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow. The theme that matters most into the open is the tension between that firmer futures tape and a 10-year yield that has jumped to 5.103%, a move that typically weighs on valuations even as options markets, via a softer VIX, look unworried. That tension puts extra weight on the morning’s main scheduled events: Core PPI and headline PPI, both due at 8:30 ET, with the inflation prints read against a backdrop of softer gold, silver and copper and a widening regional consumer-lending stress signal in the US and Canada. Kelt Exploration is among 66 companies reporting earnings today.

Overnight Crypto

Crypto sold off overnight, with bitcoin down 2.97% to 69,246.70 and ether down 3.07% to 1,955.51, a sharper drop than the losses seen in equity futures and in gold and silver. The broader market excluding bitcoin and ether fell 1.65% to $0.70 trillion, while total crypto market cap stands at $2.33 trillion and bitcoin dominance eased 0.8 points to 59.7%, suggesting the selling hit smaller tokens and the majors together rather than a rotation into either. Sentiment has deteriorated alongside price: the fear and greed index reads 20, Extreme Fear, down from 28 a week ago, with no reading in the past seven days rising back above 32. MicroStrategy, the largest corporate bitcoin holder, continues to trade at a steep discount to the value of its bitcoin holdings, now 20.0% below, in a range that has held between roughly 18% and 22% over the past five sessions. The news flow reinforces the cautious tone rather than explaining the price move directly: Gemini’s quarterly retail trading volume has fallen to a three-year low, Nomura is said to be exploring a sale of its crypto unit Laser Digital, and prediction-market litigation is spreading, with the DOJ and CFTC suing Arkansas over Kalshi enforcement and Louisiana separately suing Kalshi, Robinhood, and other platforms. Against a backdrop of extreme fear in crypto and only modest gains in equity futures, risk appetite into the open looks selective rather than broad-based.

By Oracle

Pre-Market Equities

Futures point to a firmer open after Thursday’s pullback. S&P 500 futures are up 0.16%, Nasdaq futures up 0.19% and Dow futures up 0.11%, a modest bounce following a session that left the S&P 500 down 0.33%, the Nasdaq off 0.39% and the Dow down 0.34%, with the TSX falling further, down 0.78%. The early tone sits awkwardly alongside the overnight backdrop: the 10-year yield has jumped 10.5 basis points to 5.103%, a move that typically weighs on equity valuations even as the VIX eased to 18.34. Investors get the first real test of that tension at 8:30 ET, when Core PPI and headline PPI prints land ahead of the open.

Corporate news is thin this morning. PVH Corp. On the Canadian side, Computer Modelling Group (CMG) renewed its Normal Course Issuer Bid with an automatic share purchase plan, a routine buyback mechanism rather than a surprise move. Kelt Exploration (KEL.TO) is due to report today, one of 66 companies with earnings on the calendar. With commodities broadly softer, including gold, copper and silver all lower, the early equity bid looks more like a technical bounce than a change in narrative.

By Athena

Macro Setup

The rates story this morning is the 10-year yield, which has jumped 10.5 basis points to 5.103%, a move that sits awkwardly against futures pointing to a firmer open for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow. That combination, higher long-end yields alongside a risk-on futures tape, puts extra weight on today’s inflation data. Core PPI m/m is due at 08:30 ET, forecast at 0.3% against a previous reading of 0.7%, and the headline PPI m/m is due at the same time, forecast at 0.4% against a previous 1.3%. Both releases point to a sharp deceleration from the prior month if forecasts hold. A print in line with or below forecast would ease pressure on the bond market and could help equities extend this morning’s gain, since it would support the case that price pressures are cooling even as yields have already pushed above 5%. A hotter print would do the opposite, reinforcing the yield move already underway and testing the resilience of the futures rally. The VIX, at 18.34 and down 1.87%, suggests options markets are not yet bracing for a shock from the data. There are no central bank decisions or speeches on today’s calendar to add to the picture, so PPI and core PPI are the data points that matter most for how rates and equities trade into the weekend.

By Atlas and Meridian

Commodities Snapshot

Crude is the quiet spot in the complex this morning. WTI sits at 88.19 a barrel, down 0.07%, while Brent is at 95.74, up 0.12%, a split that leaves the benchmark spread essentially unchanged. OPEC+ has agreed to keep November output targets steady and held its demand growth forecast unchanged, which fits with supply-side reports of Iraq’s October output jumping 11% even as Nigeria’s production slipped to 1.68 million barrels a day. Net, the barrel is going nowhere, and that keeps energy out of the inflation conversation ahead of today’s PPI prints. Natural gas is the mover in energy, down 1.71% to 3.28, a decline that stands apart from oil’s calm.

Metals are pulling in different directions. Gold is down 0.54% to 3,895.90 an ounce and silver has slipped 0.69% to 49.90, both easing even as the 10-year yield has jumped 10.5 basis points to 5.103%, a combination that fits higher real rates weighing on non-yielding metal. Copper is off 0.77% to 6.15 a pound, tracking equities lower rather than breaking from them. With Wall Street futures pointing to a firmer open after Thursday’s declines across the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow, the next test for this complex is whether gold and silver stabilize once the rate move settles, or keep giving ground alongside the bond selloff.

By Vanguard

Recession Stress Gauges

The consumer stress gauges are flashing a regional warning rather than a broad alarm. The US score stands at 62 out of 100, in the recession risk rising band, with the 90 day relative move down 5.63% against SPY, a sign the deterioration is building rather than easing. The weakness is concentrated in consumer lenders, with sharp declines in World Acceptance (WRLD), EZCORP (EZPW) and FirstCash (FCFS), alongside a smaller drop in Credit Acceptance (CACC), only partly offset by a large gain in Oportun Financial (OPRT). Canada reads 56 out of 100, also in the recession risk rising band, with a 90 day relative move of -6.91% led by goeasy (GSY.TO) weakness even as PRL and Equitable Group (EQB.TO) cushioned the pull. Canada’s 30 day relative move is only +0.65%, so the near term trend is mixed even though the broader signal stays stressed. Delinquency trends are rising on both sides of the border, and the recession signal sits at watch, not triggered. European data, including the ECB deposit rate and eurozone inflation, do not corroborate a matching credit stress break, so this looks like a North American consumer lending story for now, not a global one, and it sits uneasily against futures pointing to a firmer open.

By Harbinger

What To Watch

• USD Core PPI m/m, 08:30 ET: Forecast 0.3%; a hotter print would reinforce the jump in the 10-year yield to 5.103%, while a softer print could ease rate pressure and help equities hold the early rebound. Rates have already moved sharply higher and the brief ties that move to inflation risk. This is the main scheduled test for whether the morning bounce in futures can survive into the open.
• S&P 500 futures: Hold above 7,630.25. Futures are pointed modestly higher after Thursday’s pullback, but the index is trading against a backdrop of a rising 10-year yield and softer commodities. Staying above this level keeps the open constructive; slipping back would signal the rebound is losing force.
• Nasdaq futures: Stay above 28,419.50. The tech-heavy tape is trying to recover even as crypto is under pressure and long rates are rising. A hold above this mark would support the early bid, while a fade would fit the broader risk-off tone in digital assets and duration-sensitive equities.
• Bitcoin: Above 69,000. Bitcoin is down 2.97% and the fear and greed index is at 20, Extreme Fear, so the market is still leaning defensive. Holding back above 69,000 would help stabilize sentiment; losing it would keep pressure on the broader crypto complex and on risk appetite more generally.
• US 10-year yield: Above 5.10%. The yield has already jumped 10.5 basis points to 5.103%, and that move sits at the center of the brief’s rates story. If it holds above 5.10%, the pressure on valuation-sensitive stocks and non-yielding assets should persist; if it backs off, equities and gold get some relief.

By Summit

Herald Chief Publishing Officer Written by Herald, with Oracle, Athena, Atlas, Meridian, Vanguard, Harbinger and Summit Morning Market Brief · Friday, November 13, 2026 · Pre-market briefing