| 10Y Yield | 4.35% |
| 2Y Yield | 3.84% |
| Yield Spread | 0.36% |
| Fed Funds | 3.64% |
| Unemployment | 4.30% |
| WTI Oil | 102.86 USD |
| BoC Rate | 2.25% |
| GoC 10Y | 3.50% |
| Unemployment | 6.60% |
| CPI | 165.90 |
| Mortgage 5Y | 3.62% |
| Home Price | 201.84 |
- JPM WATCH JPM 2026-04-14 EPS est. 5.51
- JNJ WATCH JNJ 2026-04-14 EPS est. 2.88
- HOVR HOVR 2026-04-14 EPS est. -0.09
- WFC WFC 2026-04-14 EPS est. 1.60
- HBSI HBSI 2026-04-14
- C C 2026-04-14 EPS est. 2.67
- IGPK IGPK 2026-04-14
- VSME VSME 2026-04-14
Regime call: Late-Cycle Stress with a developing recovery pulse. VIX at 23.7, DXY at 99.34 (weak dollar), gold at $4,816 pressing highs, oil at $99.93 — all consistent with the geopolitical war premium regime I’ve been calling since early April. The new signal this morning is the BTC +4.8% overnight move holding above 74k with Fear & Greed still at 21.
That divergence — price recovering while sentiment stays in extreme fear — is the classic capitulation-bottom fingerprint. Crypto is leading the risk-on probe. Equities are tentatively following (S&P futures 6,940, TSX +0.54% yesterday). This is not an all-clear. It is the beginning of a potential regime transition that requires confirmation through today’s JPM and JNJ earnings and the BoC decision in 2 days.
our macro intelligence confirms the macro picture: late-cycle compression under active geopolitical overlay. Fed holds April — prediction markets at 98.4% probability of no change, confirmed. BoC FAD is April 16 (48 hours). our macro intelligence had a BoC hold thesis; with inflation at 2.7% and consumer stress rising (CA our stress indicator score 53/100, elevated), the base case is hold with dovish lean toward Q3 cuts.
Watch the statement language Wednesday — any hint of June cut acceleration would be CAD-negative and equity-positive for rate-sensitive names. Iran war is the dominant geopolitical variable. Hormuz blockade operational, tankers trapped, Houthis claiming joint missile attacks on Israel with Iran and Hezbollah.
Prediction markets give only 4.2% odds Trump announces end of military operations by April 15 — war premium stays. Oil’s $92-105 band thesis holds. The tail risk our macro intelligence flagged remains live: an Iran deal would drop oil $5-10 in 48 hours and hit SU.TO, ENB.TO, and CNQ.TO hard. No deal is the base case, but monitor.
our stress indicator Canada consumer stress at 53/100 with GSY.TO collapsing on surging loan losses and dividend suspension is a live recession warning signal. Canadian household credit stress is real and rising. BNS.TO exposure ($16.8k, RBC RRSP) warrants monitoring into May bank earnings.
our market monitor data is 88h stale — treat equity signals as directional, not actionable setups. JPM and JNJ report today. JPM consensus at $5.51 EPS; a beat here with confident guidance would be the green light for the broader earnings-season relief rally our macro intelligence flagged. JNJ at $2.88 — healthcare read on margin compression from input costs.
Neither are held directly, but JPM is a proxy read for BNS.TO and the Canadian financials thesis. E-mini S&P 500 options data (CME) shows 2.4:1 put-to-call ratio, 80% put weighting on 0-5 day contracts. Institutional hedging is elevated. This is consistent with “buy the dip but hedge the tail” positioning — not outright bearish capitulation, but not conviction risk-on either.
The range-bound 540-560 SPY thesis from our macro intelligence remains intact until earnings provide a catalyst. ENB.TO at $73.83 (based on portfolio data) — our market monitor flagged a buy-the-dip level at $35 which appears inconsistent with current price data. Treat that setup as stale pending our market monitor pipeline restoration.
No Morningstar data flagged for active review today, but 7 reports are stale system-wide. !todo add Refresh 7 stale Morningstar reports — priority: BNS.TO, SU.TO, ENB.TO.
our crypto monitor is the cleanest signal in today’s brief. BTC at $74,415 with onchain accumulation firing at 7/10 confidence repeatedly. ETH outperforming at +8.6% vs BTC +5.0% is the early alt-season signal — risk appetite is returning at the margin. SOL holding $85.90 support. Fear & Greed at 21 with price NOT rolling over through Asia session is the key tell — weak hands flushed, institutional bid underneath.
Portfolio holds 0.2155 BTC (~$15,742 USD, Wealthsimple Crypto) and 111 shares HUT.TO (~$10,735 CAD, WS TFSA). BTC position is modest relative to total portfolio (~4.6% USD equivalent). The capitulation signal supports holding and watching for a move through 75.2k resistance as confirmation. If 74k holds today, the next leg targets 78-80k on the 7-14 day horizon.
No new size until resistance breaks. HUT.TO is a leveraged BTC proxy — if BTC confirms the recovery, HUT outperforms on the upside. Current TFSA positioning is appropriate.
1. PIPELINE INTEGRITY: our market monitor EOD/morning, Garrison EOD, US scanner, and RSS monitor are all offline or severely stale. GoC 10Y yield data is 258h old. This is a material intelligence gap. Equity setups from our market monitor cannot be trusted for execution today. !todo add Investigate pipeline failures — our market monitor, Garrison, US scanner, RSS monitor all down 80-88h.
2. IRAN DEAL TAIL RISK: A surprise de-escalation announcement (only 4.2% odds but nonzero) would crater oil $5-10 intraday and hit the energy overweight hard. SU.TO + ENB.TO combined represent ~$20.5k CAD in direct energy exposure. No hedge in place. This is the portfolio’s single largest unhedged tail scenario.
3. CANADIAN CONSUMER CREDIT STRESS: our stress indicator CA at 53/100 (elevated), GSY.TO dividend suspension, household insolvency trending up. BNS.TO ($16.8k) is exposed. May earnings will be the tell, but the deterioration trajectory is live now.
Today’s single most important data point is JPM’s earnings call, not the price. Listen for what Jamie Dimon says about consumer credit, geopolitical risk, and loan loss provisions. A confident beat with stable guidance = green light for the relief rally thesis and accumulation setup in BNS.TO ahead of May Canadian bank earnings.
A miss or cautious guide = stay defensive, review BNS position sizing. This is the regime confirmation signal the portfolio needs before deploying the $63k+ in registered cash. Secondary watch: BoC language April 16. If dovish surprise, CAD weakens further and registered cash deployment should bias toward USD-denominated or globally diversified instruments (VGRO top-up, HXS.TO).
CALL: BTC | HOLD | 7d | 7/10 | Capitulation signal forming — Fear at 21, price holding 74k, institutional accumulation confirmed by our crypto monitor. Wait for 75.2k break before adding size. CALL: SU.TO | HOLD | 30d | 7/10 | Oil geopolitical bid intact, $92-105 band thesis holds. Iran deal is the only material downside catalyst — low probability but worth monitoring.
Core position, no action. CALL: BNS.TO | WATCH | 30d | 6/10 | Canadian consumer stress rising (our stress indicator 53/100, GSY.TO signal). Hold into May earnings but do not add until JPM today and BoC Wednesday provide cleaner read on bank credit environment. CALL: ENB.TO | HOLD |