Tag: Fed

• POW.TO WATCH POW.TO 2026-05-12 00:00:00 EPS est. 1.41
• PEY.TO WATCH PEY.TO 2026-05-12 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.70
• CAE.TO WATCH CAE.TO 2026-05-12 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.42
• WN.TO WATCH WN.TO 2026-05-12 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.98
• BTB-UN.TO HELD BTB-UN.TO 2026-05-12 00:00:00
• STN.TO WATCH STN.TO 2026-05-13 00:00:00 EPS est. 1.29
• MFC.TO HELD MFC.TO 2026-05-13 00:00:00 EPS est. 1.11
• H.TO WATCH H.TO 2026-05-13 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.61

The latest economic indicators suggest a mixed outlook for global growth, with inflationary pressures easing in some regions while others face risks of stagflation or deflation. This report delves into key trends impacting major economies and central bank policies. US Inflation & Labour Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 333.02 in April, while Producer Price Index (PPI) was recorded at 154.0 for March.

These figures indicate that goods-side disinflation is progressing but has not yet reached its full extent. The lag between PPI softening and CPI suggests pipeline price pressure is easing. Meanwhile, labour demand remains robust with a job openings rate of 4.1%, though unemployment has slightly increased to 4.3%.

Historically, this level of unemployment shifts the Federal Reserve’s tone towards potential easing measures. While the Fed is not in crisis mode, current data supports discussions around interest rate cuts. Global Growth United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew quarter-over-quarter at a rate of 0.49%, and Canada followed closely with 0.40%.

Both figures indicate positive but unremarkable growth trends without signs of acceleration. Germany’s unemployment rate stands at 4.0% alongside World Bank Consumer Price Index (CPI) around 2.3%, suggesting relative stability compared to other regions. The United Kingdom, however, faces greater risks with an unemployment rate of 5.2% and CPI at 3.3%, indicating potential stagflationary pressures.

China’s near-zero CPI (0.22%) highlights persistent deflationary pressure within the country, which limits global commodity demand and stresses trade-dependent economies. Central Bank Posture The U.S. yield curve is currently positively sloped by +81 basis points (bps) with 2-year yields at 3.60% and 10-year yields at 4.41%, indicating market expectations of a growth recovery rather than a recession.

Canada’s yield curve also shows positive slope (+61bps), but the Bank of Canada has already reduced interest rates to 2.25%, compared to U.S. federal funds implied in the range of 3.5-4.0%. This leaves room for further rate cuts by the BOC, which could favour Canadian dollar (CAD) strength if unemployment continues rising towards 4.5% and a Fed pivot becomes likely in Q3 2026.

Fiscal Health While World Bank CPI data from 2024 adds limited precision to recent trends, it is evident that core inflation has largely normalized across Europe, with Canada nearing its target levels. China’s deflationary pressures and sticky inflation rates in Australia and the UK are notable outliers, but there are no acute signs of sovereign financial stress in this dataset.

Macro Outlook The current economic environment exhibits mid-cycle dynamics leaning towards softening trends. Gradual cooling in U.S. labour markets reduces risks of a hard landing while also diminishing arguments for maintaining higher interest rates longer term. A Federal Reserve pivot towards easing measures is becoming increasingly probable, which would likely benefit risk assets and further support the Canadian dollar along with continued positive performance from equities and Bitcoin (BTC).

However, China’s potential export of deflation remains a significant tail risk that could depress commodity prices and adversely affect resource-dependent sectors in Canada before the Fed can take countermeasures.

• AMD WATCH AMD 2026-05-05 00:00:00 EPS est. 1.27

• SHOP.TO WATCH SHOP.TO 2026-05-05 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.33
• IFC.TO WATCH IFC.TO 2026-05-05 00:00:00 EPS est. 4.13
• WN.TO WATCH WN.TO 2026-05-05 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.98
• BAM.TO HELD BAM.TO 2026-05-05 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.43
• TPZ.TO WATCH TPZ.TO 2026-05-05 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.18
• SU.TO HELD SU.TO 2026-05-05 00:00:00 EPS est. 1.30
• SLF.TO WATCH SLF.TO 2026-05-06 00:00:00 EPS est. 1.90

US Inflation & Labour US CPI sits at 330.2 with PPI at 154.0 (both March data), suggesting pipeline inflation pressure remains contained but not resolved. The JOLTS opening rate of 4.2% indicates labour demand is cooling without collapsing, consistent with a soft-landing path. Unemployment at 4.3% is drifting higher but not alarming.

The Fed has room to hold, but not much room to hike without cracking employment further. Global Growth The divergence here is the headline. US GDP came in at +0.49% QoQ for Q1, a soft print but still positive. Canada is in contraction territory at -0.15% QoQ, a concerning number given the BoC is already cutting.

Germany sits at 4.0% unemployment suggesting relative labour stability, but European growth data is lagging in this snapshot. China CPI at 0.22% (2024 World Bank) signals persistent deflationary pressure that weighs on commodity demand globally. G7 growth is fragmented, not synchronized. Central Bank Posture The BoC at 2.25% is already in accommodative territory, and with Canada contracting, at least one more cut this cycle is likely.

The Fed has not moved yet. The US yield curve is positively sloped at +85.6 bps (2s10s), signalling recovery expectations are intact but not euphoric. The Canadian curve is flatter at +59 bps, reflecting slower domestic recovery expectations and a central bank that is ahead of the Fed in the easing cycle.

This spread divergence supports a weaker CAD near term. Fiscal Health World Bank CPI data (2024) shows most G7 economies have inflation trending toward target, with the notable exception of Australia at 3.17% and the UK at 3.27%, both still elevated. Italy at 0.98% is the deflationary outlier.

No acute fiscal distress signals in this dataset, but UK and Australian central banks face a stickier path than peers. Macro Outlook The US is decelerating but not breaking, and the Fed is in a holding pattern while global easing picks up pace. Canada is the clearest concern: contraction plus a weakening job market puts the BoC in a difficult position, and CAD faces headwinds.

Investors should favour USD-denominated assets in the near term, maintain gold exposure as rate divergence and growth uncertainty persist, and treat any equity weakness in Canada as regime-driven rather than idiosyncratic.

• V WATCH V 2026-04-28 00:00:00 EPS est. 3.10
• HOOD WATCH HOOD 2026-04-28 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.43
• MSFT WATCH MSFT 2026-04-29 00:00:00 EPS est. 4.07
• META WATCH META 2026-04-29 00:00:00 EPS est. 6.75

• TIH.TO WATCH TIH.TO 2026-04-28 00:00:00 EPS est. 1.08
• ARX.TO WATCH ARX.TO 2026-04-28 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.70
• ARE.TO WATCH ARE.TO 2026-04-28 00:00:00 EPS est. -0.21
• WCP.TO WATCH WCP.TO 2026-04-29 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.23

US INFLATION & LABOUR CPI sits at 330.2 and PPI at 154.0 as of March, with no fresh April prints yet to confirm direction. The trend into Q1 showed disinflation stalling rather than accelerating, keeping the Fed on hold. Labour demand remains firm with JOLTS at 4.2%, but unemployment has drifted to 4.3%, the highest in the current cycle.

The Fed is watching for labour softness to confirm a credible cut window, and we are not there yet. GLOBAL GROWTH US GDP of +0.12% QoQ as of Q4 2025 is barely positive, and Canada is already in negative territory at -0.15%. Germany’s unemployment at 4.0% signals relative labour resilience in Europe, but PMI and energy headwinds make that a fragile read.

The G7 divergence is real: UK at 5.2% unemployment, Canada at 6.7%. Canada is the weakest large economy in this snapshot on both growth and labour metrics. CENTRAL BANK POSTURE The BOC has moved faster and further, with its policy rate at 2.25% versus the Fed still sitting materially higher.

The US yield curve shows a healthy steepening: 2Y at 3.59%, 10Y at 4.34%, spread of +74.6 bps. Canada’s curve is similarly upward sloping with a 64 bps spread. Neither curve is inverted, which removes the near-term recession signal, but the steepening reflects markets pricing cuts ahead, not growth acceleration.

BOC has more room to ease; the Fed is constrained by sticky inflation and labour data. FISCAL HEALTH World Bank CPI data (2024) shows China near deflation at 0.22%, Italy at 0.98%, and France at 2.0%. This confirms the global disinflationary backdrop outside English-speaking economies.

Canada at 2.38% and Australia at 3.17% are running hotter. No current debt ratio data in this snapshot, so fiscal sustainability commentary is deferred. MACRO OUTLOOK The regime is late-cycle softening: growth slowing, labour cracking at the edges, and inflation sticky enough to keep the Fed sidelined through at least Q2.

Canada is the most vulnerable G7 economy right now, and CAD faces headwinds unless oil recovers or BOC signals a pause. For investors, the bias is toward quality, rate-sensitive names, and hard assets as the Fed cut narrative eventually reasserts itself into H2 2026.

• HOOD WATCH HOOD 2026-04-28 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.43
• V WATCH V 2026-04-28 00:00:00 EPS est. 3.10

• CLS.TO WATCH CLS.TO 2026-04-27 00:00:00 EPS est. 2.08
• TFII.TO WATCH TFII.TO 2026-04-27 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.61
• ARE.TO WATCH ARE.TO 2026-04-28 00:00:00 EPS est. -0.21
• TIH.TO WATCH TIH.TO 2026-04-28 00:00:00 EPS est. 1.08
• ARX.TO WATCH ARX.TO 2026-04-28 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.70
• WCP.TO WATCH WCP.TO 2026-04-29 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.23

Recent data shows that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stands at 330.2 and the Producer Price Index (PPI) at 154.0, both reflecting a slight cooling trend in inflation compared to peak levels. However, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s comfort zone. The JOLTS openings rate at 4.2% indicates a softening labour market, but it is not collapsing.

Unemployment at 4.3% is gradually increasing, consistent with a late-cycle labour market that is loosening. This suggests the Fed has room to cut rates but no immediate urgency to do so.

US GDP growth is barely positive at +0.12% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ). In contrast, Canada is experiencing a contraction at -0.15% QoQ, with unemployment at 6.7%, indicating significant pressure on the domestic economy. Among G7 countries, Germany, with an unemployment rate of 4.0%, appears to have a relatively tight labour market, but its export-dependent economy faces challenges due to weak global trade.

The UK, with an unemployment rate of 5.2%, sits in the middle. The most critical divergence is between Canada and the US, where Canada is softening faster, which has direct implications for the Canadian dollar (CAD), rate differentials, and TSX exporters.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a policy rate of 2.25%, which is already below the Federal Reserve’s implied range. The Canadian yield curve, with a spread of +63bps between 2s and 10s, is flatter than the US curve (+72bps). Both curves are positively sloped, suggesting that markets expect a modest recovery but not a boom.

Given negative GDP and elevated unemployment, the BoC has more room and reason to cut rates further. The Fed, on the other hand, is on hold unless labour conditions deteriorate. The divergence in rate policies favours a weaker CAD in the near term, which benefits Canadian exporters and hinders US-denominated imports.

There is no World Bank debt ratio data available in this snapshot. This information will be flagged for the next cycle update.

The macroeconomic outlook suggests that Canada is the weaker horse in this scenario. Negative GDP growth, high unemployment, and the likelihood of further BoC rate cuts put pressure on the CAD and domestic consumption-facing equities. The US economy, while slowing, is not breaking, and the positively sloped yield curve indicates that the bond market does not currently price a recession.

For positioning, this macro backdrop favours Canadian exporters with USD revenue, commodity names that benefit from a weaker CAD, and a cautious stance on rate-sensitive domestic plays like REITs and consumer discretionary stocks. The next BoC decision could serve as a potential catalyst for further market movements.