Category: Prediction Markets

Bank of Canada Pricing Tilts Toward a Pause

Canadian prediction markets have swung hard toward a Bank of Canada hold on December 9, with that contract at 64% against a fading 36% chance of a 25 basis point hike, even as open interest shows the book still far from settled. That pricing shift comes alongside cooling inflation, with headline CPI down to 2.8% and core measures easing, while unemployment has drifted up to 6.5% and growth has stalled at 0.0% in August, a backdrop that argues for a pause even though the Bank has already lifted its rate to 2.5% from 2.25% over the past three months. The S&P/TSX Composite and the Canadian dollar have held relatively steady against that tightening, while WTI crude has surged nearly 30% and the US 10-year yield has climbed 24.3 basis points, pressures that could complicate the case for holding. A run of US data, from payrolls to CPI to PPI, lands before the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve meet on the same day, and will shape whether the market’s lean toward a hold survives contact with the numbers. Trade policy adds a slower-moving thread, with tariff relief from the Prime Minister priced as a gradual prospect stretching toward April.

What the Prediction Markets Are Pricing

Canadian rate pricing has moved decisively toward a hold at the Bank of Canada’s December 9 decision. The hold contract is at 64%, up from 52% at the first reading on Oct 09 and up 18 points over the past week alone, while a 25 basis point hike has faded to 36% from 43% at the window’s start and down 19 points on the week. Larger moves in either direction are priced as near-zero: a cut of more than 25 basis points sits at 1%, down from 5% a week ago. Open interest is split almost evenly between the hold (22,112 contracts) and the hike (18,535), showing the positioning is far from settled even as the week’s flow favoured a hold. The earlier October 28 decision has essentially resolved in pricing, with a hike at 75% carrying the heaviest open interest in the book at 136,618 contracts against a 27% hold.

For the rate level on December 31, 2.50% leads at 62%, up from 48% a week ago and 45% at the first Oct 09 reading, with 2.75% behind at 39%, down from 41% a week ago. The market prices 93% odds of exactly zero Bank of Canada cuts in 2026, little changed on the week.

On housing-adjacent trade policy, the Prime Minister announcing lower U.S. tariffs is priced at just 4% before November 1, rising to 24% before December 1 and 40% by April 1, 2027, a gradual build rather than an imminent event.

By Meridian

Canadian Economy and Indicators

The three-month picture is one of cooling inflation meeting a softening labour market, while the Bank of Canada has moved the other way on rates. Headline CPI slowed to +2.8% year over year in September from +3.0%, and the Bank’s preferred core gauges eased too: CPI-trim down to 1.8% from 1.9% (also 1.9% at the start of the window) and CPI-median down to 1.9% from 2%. That disinflation has not come with a stronger jobs market. Unemployment rose to 6.5% in September from 6.4%, and employment fell to 21,104.8 thousand from 21,173.1 thousand, versus 21,139.7 thousand three months ago. Growth has stalled rather than contracted, with real GDP by industry flat at 0.0% in August for a second straight month, down from +0.3% three months earlier, and the OECD composite leading indicator for Canada slipping to 101.9 from 102.0.

Despite that softer growth and labour backdrop, the Bank of Canada has raised its overnight rate target to 2.5% from 2.25%, with CORRA confirming the move by rising to 2.5% from 2.26% (2.34% at the start of the window). The Canada 10-year yield has climbed in step, to 3.88% from 3.67%, reflecting a market pricing less room for easing. Prediction markets now sit close to that reality: a hold is favoured for December 9 over a further hike, and for the year-end rate level, 2.50% is the clear favourite against 2.75%. Taken together, the data argue for the Bank to pause, and the pricing has moved toward that outcome, even though a further hike has not been ruled out.

By Atlas

Weather and Climate

The two alerts on the feed carry little direct weight for Canadian markets. Tropical cyclone TWO-26 drew an orange notification on Oct 26, with modelled Category 1 (120 km/h) or higher wind speeds affecting a population of 0.356 million. A storm of that strength near the Gulf of Mexico would normally be worth watching for refining and shipping disruption given WTI crude’s sharp climb over the past three months, but the alert does not specify a Gulf landfall. The magnitude 7 earthquake in China on Oct 22, affecting 130 thousand people within 100 km, has no stated bearing on the regions tracked here. No Environment Canada warnings have crossed for the western Prairies or the Alberta oil sands, and model forecasts reach only about a week ahead. The other watched regions, the Gulf of Mexico, Mato Grosso soy, the US Midwest corn belt, Western Europe and Punjab wheat, show nothing crossing threshold.

By Gaia

Policy and Politics

Over the past three months Ottawa’s policy mix has leaned toward targeted industrial strategy and trade diversification rather than a single broad macro shift. The largest strategic item is a federal commitment of up to $1.6 billion in Cohere, announced by the Prime Minister’s Office as part of a push for secure, sovereign Canadian AI infrastructure, a signal that Ottawa wants domestic compute and software capacity built at home. Natural Resources Canada announced a federal investment of over $1.2 million through the First and Last Mile Fund to improve access to the Shaakichiuwaanaan lithium project in northern Quebec, described as one of the largest lithium resources in the world, reinforcing the critical-minerals and battery-supply-chain theme.

On trade, the Prime Minister’s Office announced a new Strategic Partnership with the United Arab Emirates, including a reported trade agreement and investment commitments, following the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi’s official visit. The Canada-EU Alliance for the Future, also announced by the PMO, frames the relationship as a shared prosperity and economic security space, with potential support for exporters and cross-border supply chains. Finance Canada confirmed that legislation extending federal fuel excise tax relief has passed (ENACTED), easing near-term household fuel costs. Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada launched a Telecom Competition Roadmap aimed at increasing competition, a potential headwind for incumbent operators and a tailwind for challengers. Environment and Climate Change Canada has proposed changes to the Clean Fuel Regulations to support the low-carbon fuel industry. Housing support continued through the Development Charge Reduction Program in Essex County and a series of local infrastructure grants, including the Build Communities Strong Fund commitment for the Ballantrae Multi Sport Complex. None of these announcements directly addresses the Bank of Canada’s rate path.

By Laurier and Maple

Recent and Upcoming Events

The last three months were defined by the Bank of Canada’s shift to 2.5% from 2.25%, delivered even as inflation cooled and the labour market softened, a combination that has reshaped how the prediction markets price the next two decisions. The Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve both meet on Dec 09 2026, with the European Central Bank following on Dec 17 2026, and the Bank of Canada returns on Jan 27 2027 alongside the Fed, published with the Monetary Policy Report, 87 days from today. A string of US releases sits ahead of the December meeting and will feed into how investors read the Bank of Canada’s own decision: the Employment Situation on Nov 06, CPI on Nov 10 and PPI on Nov 13, then GDP (Second Estimate) and Personal Income and Outlays on Nov 25, a further Employment Situation on Dec 04, CPI on Dec 10 and PPI on Dec 15. Statistics Canada’s own CPI, Labour Force Survey and monthly GDP remain due on their regular monthly rhythm, with no specific dates yet listed.

On trade, a 21st EU-Canada summit was held in Montreal on Oct 29-30 2026, where leaders launched the EU-Canada Alliance for the Future, a signal of deepening cooperation though the concrete policy content is not yet public. On tariffs, Kalshi pricing shows the market treating relief from the Prime Minister as a gradual prospect, with the odds of an announcement rising the further out the window runs, while a separate contract keeps a meaningful probability on US auto tariffs remaining in effect. Weather-wise, no Environment Canada warnings have hit the western Prairies or Alberta oil sands, and forecasts only extend about a week out, leaving the main near-term watch squarely on the rate decisions and the US data feeding them.

By Atlas, Athena, Laurier and Monnet

What These Outlooks Depend On

The December 9 Bank of Canada decision anchors nearly every Canadian price in this report. The hold has climbed from 52% at the first October reading to 64% now while the hike has fallen from 55% a week ago to 36%, a swing that the Employment Situation on November 6, CPI on November 10 and PPI on November 13 will test directly before the meeting, alongside the US Federal Reserve’s own decision held the same day. The year-end overnight-rate contract, where 2.50% leads at 62% against 2.75% at 39%, depends on that identical decision: a hold locks in 2.50%, a hike pushes the outcome toward 2.75%.

These odds sit against Canadian inflation cooling toward target and unemployment drifting higher, a combination that argues against a hike even as the market currently leans that way, leaving room for a surprise if upcoming US data shifts the broader rate backdrop Canadian pricing trades alongside. The October 28 decision, by contrast, is already priced as resolved, with the hike carrying the heaviest open interest in the book.

The tariff contracts depend on an actual Prime Ministerial announcement, with odds building gradually from 4% inside a month to 40% within five months. A surprise on any one of these, an early hike, an unexpected hold reversal, or a tariff announcement landing sooner than priced, would move the others given how tightly they share the same policy path.

By Meridian

Prometheus Prediction Markets Trader Written by Prometheus, with Meridian, Atlas, Gaia, Laurier, Maple, Athena and Monnet Canada Predictions Weekly · Sunday, November 01, 2026 · Weekly Canada prediction-markets outlook

Prediction Markets Now Bet on a Bank of Canada Hike

Canadian prediction markets have swung sharply toward a Bank of Canada rate hike at Wednesday’s October 28 decision, with the 25-basis-point hike contract now at 82%, up from just 32% a week ago, while hold has collapsed to 18% from 68%. That pricing sits oddly against the underlying data: CPI has cooled to +2.8%, unemployment has risen to 6.5%, and GDP growth stalled at 0.0% in July, a mix that would normally argue for patience rather than tightening. The bond market offers a clue, with the Canada 10-year yield climbing to 3.88% even as inflation eased, and WTI crude up 25.01% to 103.27 adding a fresh inflation risk just as the Bank delivers its Monetary Policy Report. The December 9 decision, the year-end overnight rate split between 2.50% and 2.75%, and the Canadian dollar near 1.3997 all now hinge on how this week’s call lands, with the US Federal Reserve meeting the same day adding another variable.

What the Prediction Markets Are Pricing

The Canadian contracts on Kalshi are telling a one-directional story this week, and it is not the one the inflation data alone would suggest. For the October 28 Bank of Canada decision, a 25-basis-point hike now trades at 82%, up 50 points from 32% a week ago and up from 15% on Oct 10, the start of this price history. Hold has fallen to 18%, down 50 points from 68% a week ago and from 80% at the Oct 09 opening reading, with 24-hour volume of 9,952 contracts and open interest above 108,000, the heaviest flow and largest open interest in the set. A move of more than 25 basis points is a long shot at 2%. For December 9, the same pattern shows up in smaller size: hold sits at 54%, down from 64% a week ago, while a 25-basis-point hike has climbed to 48% from 29%, both barely moved in the past day. Cuts of any size remain priced in the single digits at both meetings, and the market gives 93% odds of zero Bank of Canada cuts across all of 2026. On the year-end overnight rate, 2.50% (48%) and 2.75% (42%) are the two contenders, with 2.75% up sharply from 10% a week ago. Housing contracts are flatter and thinner: a December average home price above C$700,000 sits at 18%, and housing starts above 300,000 units for any 2026 release at 12%, both little changed over the week on low volume.

By Meridian

Canadian Economy and Indicators

The three-month window shows a Canadian economy cooling on almost every growth and labour gauge even as price pressure eases. Headline CPI fell to +2.8% year over year in September from +3.0%, and the Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures moved the same way: CPI-trim slipped to 1.8% from 1.9%, and CPI-median eased to 1.9% from 2%, unchanged since June. That disinflation has come alongside a softening labour market, with the unemployment rate rising to 6.5% in September from 6.4%, and employment down to 21,104.8 thousand from 21,173.1 thousand, a decline from the 21,139.7 thousand level recorded back in June. Growth has essentially stalled too: real GDP by industry was flat at 0.0% in July, down from +0.4% the prior month and +0.6% in April. CORRA has edged only slightly lower, to 2.26% from 2.29% at the start of the window, a much smaller move than the climb in the Canada 10-year yield to 3.88% from 3.67%, which suggests the bond market is pricing something other than near-term easing. That combination of softer inflation, a weaker job market and stalled output would typically argue for lower rates, yet Canadian prediction markets have swung the other way, now favouring a 25-basis-point hike at the Bank of Canada’s December 9 decision. The OECD composite leading indicator for Canada has also drifted down, to 101.9 from 102.0, adding to the picture of a slowing economy. Housing pricing stays soft as well, with low odds attached to both a higher December home price and housing starts clearing 300,000 units, consistent with an economy that has little underlying momentum.

By Atlas

Weather and Climate

Environment Canada’s winter storm warning for Wollaston Lake to Collins Bay confirms the early-season cold already reaching the northern Prairies, a reminder that the oil sands region depends on clear roads and rail for logistics and maintenance through the colder months. The warning sits in northern Saskatchewan rather than directly in Alberta oil sands operating areas, so the near-term disruption risk is limited for now, though it is worth watching whether the pattern pushes further west. With WTI already up sharply over the past three months, any weather-driven slowdown in oil sands output or transport would land on a market already tight. Forecasts only reach about a week ahead, so nothing further out can be read from this. The Gulf of Mexico, Mato Grosso soy, the US Midwest corn belt, Western Europe and Punjab wheat show no warnings crossing a market-relevant threshold this week.

By Gaia

Policy and Politics

Federal policy over the past three months ran on two tracks before this week’s parliamentary tape shifted the tone. Government announcements, not yet enacted law in most cases, built out a resilience agenda aimed at U.S. tariff pressure: a $1.75 billion Venture and Growth Capital Plan for domestic venture funding, consultations on a new Canadian space act with a $15 million investment in Xona Space Systems Canada, and a Canada-Türkiye Strategic Partnership from the first bilateral visit by a Canadian Prime Minister. Housing and industry followed, with up to $84.4 million for Windsor and Tecumseh tied to three years of development-charge relief, $2 billion over eight years for home retrofits, and over $190 million for critical minerals and aluminum processing at Rio Tinto and Aluminerie Alouette facilities. Ottawa and Ontario also launched a joint action plan naming autos, steel and critical minerals as tariff-exposed sectors, while Parliament passed Bill C-38 extending federal fuel excise relief and the government confirmed a seventh Canadian-dollar green bond issuance.

More recently, the parliamentary record shows the debate turning to affordability: MPs cited an 8% rise in food bank visitors this year, and opposition members argued the industrial carbon tax, layered on top of American tariffs, is straining energy-intensive industry. These remain debate signals rather than enacted measures. Set against a labour market that has softened and growth that stalled, as this report’s economic section shows, that pressure keeps Budget 2026’s pre-budget consultations framed around worker support, business investment and competitiveness.

By Laurier and Maple

Recent and Upcoming Events

The last three months combined disinflation with a weakening labour market and a surging oil price: CPI eased to +2.8% in September, unemployment climbed to 6.5%, GDP growth stalled at 0.0% in July, and WTI crude jumped 25.01% to 103.27, a combination that complicates the Bank of Canada’s calculus heading into this week’s decision. On the policy side, Ottawa rolled out a run of spending and support measures, the $1.75 billion Venture and Growth Capital Plan, up to $84.4 million for Windsor and Tecumseh infrastructure tied to development-charge relief, $2 billion over eight years for home retrofits, more than $190 million for critical minerals and aluminum processing, and Bill C-38 fuel excise tax relief, alongside an Ontario action plan addressing tariff exposure in autos, steel and critical minerals. Parliament’s attention has since shifted toward affordability pressure, including food bank use, ahead of Budget 2026 consultations.

The next three months bring two Bank of Canada decisions now central to market pricing. Wednesday’s October 28 decision, delivered with the Monetary Policy Report, carries an 82% chance of a 25-basis-point hike, up sharply from 32% a week ago, while the hold contract has fallen to 18% from 68%. The December 9 decision is closer, split between hold at 54% and a hike at 48%. The US Federal Reserve also meets October 28 and December 9, and the European Central Bank meets October 29 and December 17, with US data in between, including Personal Income and Outlays and the GDP Advance Estimate on October 29, the Employment Cost Index on October 30, and nonfarm payrolls on November 6 and December 4. Statistics Canada’s monthly CPI, Labour Force Survey and GDP releases remain due on their usual rhythm, though no dates are yet listed. A winter storm warning for Wollaston Lake to Collins Bay is an early reminder of the seasonal logistics risk that can affect oil sands operating areas as the colder months approach.

By Atlas, Athena, Laurier and Monnet

What These Outlooks Depend On

Nearly every Canadian contract in this set now hinges on a single dated event three days out: the October 28 Bank of Canada decision, released alongside the Monetary Policy Report. The 82% now priced for a 25-basis-point hike there is the hinge for everything downstream. A hike that matches pricing would likely push the December 9 hike contract, now at 48%, higher still and reinforce the 93% odds of zero cuts in 2026. A hold instead, against only 18% now priced for that outcome, would be the surprise case and should snap that contract back up while pulling the hike contracts down at both meetings. December 9 in turn feeds the year-end overnight rate split between 2.50% and 2.75%: a hike on both occasions supports the higher level, while a hold at either meeting favours 2.50%. None of the housing contracts, the C$700,000 average price threshold or the 300,000 starts level, have a dated release attached in this window; they depend on Statistics Canada’s monthly housing and inflation figures arriving on their usual rhythm rather than on a fixed date, and only secondarily on the rate path through its effect on borrowing costs and the currency. A rate surprise this week would also be the kind of event that moves the Canadian dollar and bond yields first, with any housing repricing following after.

By Meridian

Prometheus Prediction Markets Trader Written by Prometheus, with Meridian, Atlas, Gaia, Laurier, Maple, Athena and Monnet Canada Predictions Weekly · Sunday, October 25, 2026 · Weekly Canada prediction-markets outlook

Bank of Canada Hold Bets Hold, But Hike Odds Build

Kalshi’s Canadian contracts still favour patience from the Bank of Canada, with a hold priced at 82% for October 28 and 52% for December 9, yet hike probabilities have climbed to 18% and 44% respectively as Canada’s 10-year yield rises to 3.88% even while growth stalls and the labour market softens. Headline inflation has eased to 3.0% and core measures sit near target, but that cooling has not stopped bond yields from pushing higher, a tension the market is pricing rather than resolving. The next ten days bring both the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve to the table on October 28, with the European Central Bank a day behind, while Statistics Canada’s monthly data keep landing on their usual rhythm. Against that backdrop the S&P/TSX Composite sits near 36,200, USD/CAD hovers close to 1.42, and WTI crude trades near $100, three levels this report flags as the ones to watch over the next three months. Federal spending announcements, meanwhile, keep favouring specific sectors like housing and industrial capacity rather than the broad economy.

What the Prediction Markets Are Pricing

The Canadian contracts, priced on Kalshi as of the October 18 snapshot, show a market still leaning toward patience from the Bank of Canada but with hike risk building at the margin. For the October 28 decision, hold is priced at 82%, down 2 points from a week ago and up from 80% at the first reading in the window on October 9, while a 25 basis point hike has climbed to 18% from 14% a week ago and from 15% at the window’s start, open interest of 35,402 on the hike contract against 66,353 on hold shows the hold trade remains the larger position even as the hike price firms. The December 9 decision is priced far closer: hold at 52%, down from 55% a week ago, against a 44% hike probability, up from 45% a week ago but little changed day to day, a split that marks the more contested of the two meetings this year. The year-end overnight rate distribution has shifted toward the higher end over the week: 2.25% is now priced at 38%, up 6 points from a day ago and 3 points from a week ago, while 2.50% has slipped to 45% from 49% a day ago. The number of cuts in 2026 is priced overwhelmingly at zero, 94%, up from 90% a week ago. Housing contracts stayed subdued: homes above C$700,000 in December sits at 17%, and starts above 300,000 units at 12%, both little changed over the week with price history available only back to October 9 or 10.

By Meridian

Canadian Economy and Indicators

Canada’s data over the past three months points to an economy losing momentum while inflation cools only gradually. Real GDP by industry was flat in July (0.0%), down from +0.4% the prior month and well off the +0.6% pace seen at the start of the window in April, a clear deceleration in underlying growth. The labour market has softened alongside it: employment fell to 21,104.8 thousand in September from 21,173.1 the month before and from 21,139.7 back in June, while the unemployment rate rose to 6.5% from 6.4%, having been flat through most of the window. Inflation is easing but not yet at target. Headline CPI came in at +3.0% year over year in August, down from +3.1%, while the Bank of Canada’s core measures, CPI-trim and CPI-median, held at 1.9% and 2% respectively, both a touch below their readings at the start of the window (2% and 2.1%). CORRA, the overnight repo rate average, has drifted down to 2.27% from 2.31% in July. Against that backdrop, Canada’s 10-year government bond yield has moved the other way, rising to 3.88% in September from 3.67%, a steepening that sits oddly next to slowing growth and that echoes the rise in borrowing costs showing up in other government bond markets this quarter. The Kalshi prediction markets lean toward the Bank holding rates through year end: a hold is priced at 82% for the October 28 decision and 52% for December 9, with the December 31 overnight rate seen most likely at 2.50% (45%) or 2.25% (38%), a split that has been drifting toward the lower level over the past day. Housing remains subdued, with only 17% probability assigned to average home prices topping C$700,000 in December and 12% to housing starts exceeding 300,000 units in any 2026 release.

By Atlas

Weather and Climate

No Environment Canada warnings have crossed for the western Prairies or the Alberta oil sands over the past two weeks, and none of the tropical cyclones flagged globally this period, ONE-26, TWENTYNINE-26, TRUDY-26, TWENTY-E-26 and ISAIAS-26, are tracked into the Gulf of Mexico production region. That matters more than usual given how far WTI crude has climbed against its level three months ago: a storm reaching the Gulf would carry outsized weight for Canadian energy exporters and refiners right now, so the region stays worth watching even with nothing yet crossed. Volcanic activity continues at Kanlaon and Taal in the Philippines, outside the markets tracked here. With forecasts reaching only about a week ahead, the Alberta oil sands, Mato Grosso soy, the US Midwest corn belt, Western Europe and Punjab wheat remain the regions to watch for anything that could move energy, crop or transport prices over the next three months.

By Gaia

Policy and Politics

Federal policy over the past three months has run through targeted spending rather than any single macro measure, and the pattern points to specific sector beneficiaries rather than broad stimulus. On housing, government announcements layered support across the country: over $5.6 million through the Affordable Housing Fund and Rapid Housing Initiative for 60 rental homes in Yorkton and Yellow Quill First Nation, up to $19.6 million for St. Thomas through the Development Charge Reduction Program, development-charge-linked funding in Guelph and Orillia, a Green Municipal Fund allocation covering 162 retrofit and resilient-housing projects nationally, and a Newfoundland and Labrador home-upgrades agreement under the Canada Greener Homes Affordability Program. These should favor builders, retrofit contractors and materials suppliers, and reinforce housing supply as a stated priority even as Kalshi pricing keeps the odds of home prices topping C$700,000 by December, or housing starts clearing 300,000 units, low. Industrial capacity also drew support: a government announcement of financial backing for Conifex Timber Inc. amid softwood lumber disputes, the closed Thompson Mine Complex transaction securing a Manitoba nickel operation, and investment in Hitachi Energy’s transformer and pressboard plant. Transit and food items followed the same template, including Prevost’s bus plant, Belleville transit funding and a $50 million CFIN food-sector investment. A government visit to Westridge Marine Terminal reinforced a stated aim of keeping energy export infrastructure running. On the diplomatic side, a Prime Minister’s Office record of a Carney-Zelenskyy call flagged a new US-Russia diesel agreement that Ottawa said runs counter to isolating Russia, keeping energy-security risk in view without new Canadian funding attached. None of this amounts to broad demand stimulus: the lift is localized, with Bank of Canada policy, now priced by the market to hold through year end, largely untouched by these measures.

By Laurier and Maple

Recent and Upcoming Events

The last three months have been defined by a cooling domestic economy set against a federal government choosing to support specific sectors rather than the broad economy. Growth stalled in July, employment and the labour market weakened into September, and headline inflation eased to 3.0%, a backdrop that has not stopped Canada’s 10-year yield from climbing to 3.88% over the period. Alongside that, Ottawa’s announcements clustered around housing, industrial capacity and transit: funding in Yorkton, the Thompson Mine Complex nickel transaction in Manitoba, the Hitachi Energy grid-equipment investment, and support for Conifex Timber Inc. amid softwood lumber disputes, none of it amounting to demand-wide stimulus but each pointing to where support is landing.

The next ten days bring three central-bank decisions in close succession. The Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve both meet on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, with the Bank of Canada’s decision accompanied by its Monetary Policy Report, and the European Central Bank follows a day later on October 29. Kalshi prices a hold at October 28 at 82%, with an 18% chance on a 25 basis point hike, up from 14% a week ago, a small but building minority view given the yield backdrop. A second Bank of Canada decision falls on December 9, alongside another Federal Reserve meeting, where the hold probability sits lower at 52%, with 44% on a 25 basis point hike. The European Central Bank meets again on December 17. Beyond these dated events, Statistics Canada’s monthly CPI, Labour Force Survey and GDP releases are due on their usual rhythm over the next three months, each a potential input into how those priced probabilities move before the Bank’s two remaining decisions this year.

By Atlas, Athena, Laurier and Monnet

Prometheus Prediction Markets Analyst Written by Prometheus, with Meridian, Atlas, Gaia, Laurier, Maple, Athena and Monnet Canada Predictions Weekly · Sunday, October 18, 2026 · Weekly Canada prediction-markets outlook