US Market Weekly — May 05 to May 11, 2026

• CRT-UN.TO WATCH CRT-UN.TO 2026-05-11 00:00:00
• ABX.TO WATCH ABX.TO 2026-05-11 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.82
• PEY.TO WATCH PEY.TO 2026-05-12 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.70
• CAE.TO WATCH CAE.TO 2026-05-12 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.42
• BTB-UN.TO HELD BTB-UN.TO 2026-05-12 00:00:00
• POW.TO WATCH POW.TO 2026-05-12 00:00:00 EPS est. 1.41
• WN.TO WATCH WN.TO 2026-05-12 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.98
• STN.TO WATCH STN.TO 2026-05-13 00:00:00 EPS est. 1.29

May 11, 2026

Tech (XLK +3.44%) and growth (QQQ +2.34%) led decisively while industrials (XLI -0.46%), financials (XLF -0.60%), healthcare (XLV -0.85%), and energy (XLE -0.45%) lagged. This rotation signals persistent rotation into large-cap technology and AI-exposed equities, despite modest broad-market gains. The weakness in XLE and XLI suggests reduced expectations for economic acceleration; investors are pricing slower growth ahead, not vigor.

[SOURCE: sector ETF performance data, May 05-11]

SPY +0.83% and QQQ +2.34% show the classic 2026 pattern: QQQ outpacing SPY by 150 bps. This indicates market strength concentrated in mega-cap tech and NVIDIA-adjacent names, not breadth. The S&P 500’s anemic gain masks the fact that roughly 60% of market cap gain is driven by the Magnificent 7 equivalent.

Caution warranted; narrow leadership is vulnerable to any disappointment in AI capex or earnings revisions. [SOURCE: SPY/QQQ daily performance]

CPI 330.213 and PPI 154.006 (both as of Mar 2026) remain sticky, though not accelerating [STALE: both data points are 2.5 months old]. Unemployment 4.3% and JOLTS JOR 4.1% suggest labor market cooling moderately; job openings are falling relative to jobseekers, reducing wage pressure. The May 10 Trump post citing 115K job gains hints at softer payroll prints ahead.

This environment supports the Fed’s “hold” bias, but it also signals economic deceleration risk. Equity investors should expect earnings revisions downward if Q2 growth disappoints. [SOURCE: US macro data, Mar 2026; Trump X post, May 10]

10Y at 4.36%, 5Y at 4.01%, 2Y at 3.60% produces a +76 bps 10Y-2Y spread, indicating normal steepening. The rise in long-end yields reflects either inflation persistence or real rate repricing. For equities, this is a headwind: rising risk-free rates compress equity risk premia. Watch 10Y; if it breaks above 4.50%, multiple compression accelerates.

[SOURCE: US yield curve, May 10]

Trump’s May 11 Strait of Hormuz post (three destroyers) hints at persistent Middle East engagement; energy markets should remain geopolitically bid but lack fundamental conviction. The May 10 “115K jobs” post signals incoming weaker labor data, consistent with macro cooling. No major Congressional bills moved equities this week.

[SOURCE: Trump X posts, May 08-11]

QQQ strength masks SPY fragility; tech remains bid on AI hype, but cyclical weakness and sticky rates suggest caution. Watch for Q2 earnings revisions; if guidance falls, narrow leadership breaks. Energy and industrials remain defensive until growth outlook clarifies; stay overweight tech tactically, but scale into any 5%+ QQQ pullback.

Confidence: 6/10. This is consolidation, not conviction.