Macro Pulse — Apr 29 to May 05, 2026

• AMD WATCH AMD 2026-05-05 00:00:00 EPS est. 1.27

• SHOP.TO WATCH SHOP.TO 2026-05-05 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.33
• IFC.TO WATCH IFC.TO 2026-05-05 00:00:00 EPS est. 4.13
• WN.TO WATCH WN.TO 2026-05-05 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.98
• BAM.TO HELD BAM.TO 2026-05-05 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.43
• TPZ.TO WATCH TPZ.TO 2026-05-05 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.18
• SU.TO HELD SU.TO 2026-05-05 00:00:00 EPS est. 1.30
• SLF.TO WATCH SLF.TO 2026-05-06 00:00:00 EPS est. 1.90

US Inflation & Labour US CPI sits at 330.2 with PPI at 154.0 (both March data), suggesting pipeline inflation pressure remains contained but not resolved. The JOLTS opening rate of 4.2% indicates labour demand is cooling without collapsing, consistent with a soft-landing path. Unemployment at 4.3% is drifting higher but not alarming.

The Fed has room to hold, but not much room to hike without cracking employment further. Global Growth The divergence here is the headline. US GDP came in at +0.49% QoQ for Q1, a soft print but still positive. Canada is in contraction territory at -0.15% QoQ, a concerning number given the BoC is already cutting.

Germany sits at 4.0% unemployment suggesting relative labour stability, but European growth data is lagging in this snapshot. China CPI at 0.22% (2024 World Bank) signals persistent deflationary pressure that weighs on commodity demand globally. G7 growth is fragmented, not synchronized. Central Bank Posture The BoC at 2.25% is already in accommodative territory, and with Canada contracting, at least one more cut this cycle is likely.

The Fed has not moved yet. The US yield curve is positively sloped at +85.6 bps (2s10s), signalling recovery expectations are intact but not euphoric. The Canadian curve is flatter at +59 bps, reflecting slower domestic recovery expectations and a central bank that is ahead of the Fed in the easing cycle.

This spread divergence supports a weaker CAD near term. Fiscal Health World Bank CPI data (2024) shows most G7 economies have inflation trending toward target, with the notable exception of Australia at 3.17% and the UK at 3.27%, both still elevated. Italy at 0.98% is the deflationary outlier.

No acute fiscal distress signals in this dataset, but UK and Australian central banks face a stickier path than peers. Macro Outlook The US is decelerating but not breaking, and the Fed is in a holding pattern while global easing picks up pace. Canada is the clearest concern: contraction plus a weakening job market puts the BoC in a difficult position, and CAD faces headwinds.

Investors should favour USD-denominated assets in the near term, maintain gold exposure as rate divergence and growth uncertainty persist, and treat any equity weakness in Canada as regime-driven rather than idiosyncratic.