US Market Weekly — Apr 28 to May 04, 2026

• BTB-UN.TO HELD BTB-UN.TO 2026-05-04 00:00:00
• REI-UN.TO WATCH REI-UN.TO 2026-05-04 00:00:00
• CJT.TO HELD CJT.TO 2026-05-04 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.85
• CRT-UN.TO WATCH CRT-UN.TO 2026-05-04 00:00:00
• BAM.TO HELD BAM.TO 2026-05-05 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.43
• SU.TO HELD SU.TO 2026-05-05 00:00:00 EPS est. 1.30
• WN.TO WATCH WN.TO 2026-05-05 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.98
• IFC.TO WATCH IFC.TO 2026-05-05 00:00:00 EPS est. 4.13

Tech (XLK +1.49%, QQQ +0.96%) led the market this week, with semiconductor and software names (ORCL +5.6%, ARM +3.4%) extending gains on AI momentum [SOURCE: Madison US Signals]. Energy lagged hard: XLB -0.23% and XLF -0.40% signal weakness in Materials and Financials, with VLO -3.0% suggesting refining margin pressure or macro demand concern [SOURCE: Madison US Signals].

Staples (XLP -0.17%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.18%) traded sideways; neither inflation hedge is firing. Interpretation: Investor capital rotating into growth and semiconductors, out of cyclicals and rate-sensitive sectors. This is consistent with a “soft landing expected, but not imminent” stance.

SPY +0.28%, QQQ +0.96% shows classic 2026 behavior: mega-cap tech pulls the indices higher while breadth (small and mid-cap) lags. The 68 basis-point spread between QQQ and SPY reflects concentration risk; fewer stocks driving returns. No crash signal yet, but narrow leadership is a yellow flag for sustained rallies [SOURCE: Sector ETF performance data].

Unemployment 4.3% (as of March 01) [SOURCE: US macro], JOLTS JOR 4.2% (as of Feb 01) [SOURCE: US macro] — both stable, no shock. CPI 330.213 and PPI 154.006 (both stale, March 01 data) [STALE: SOURCE macro] show no red flags on the last read. Fed likely patient; no imminent rate cuts or hikes signaled by this data.

Risk: delayed CPI reports mean macro surprises could arrive with less warning.

2Y/10Y spread +80.3 basis points signals curve normalization and confidence in terminal rate. 10Y at 4.38% remains above 2026 starting point, consistent with Fed “higher for longer” [SOURCE: Yield curve 2026-05-03]. Steeper curve favors banks (though XLF lagged this week) and is generally risk-on. No inversion risk; term premium stable.

Trump posts on Iran nuclear and Telegram moderation carry geopolitical weight but no direct equity catalyst yet. Monitor for tariff announcements or tech regulation; neither materialized this week [SOURCE: Trump posts Apr 28-30].

Tech strength is real but narrowing; watch for SPY/QQQ spread to tighten (sign of broadening) or widen further (sign of fragility). Energy weakness warrants tactical shorts or puts on cyclicals if macro data rolls over. Expect volatility if next CPI print surprises high; yield curve could steepen further if inflation fears return.

Stay long growth, trim size in narrow rallies, size into weakness.