Geopolitical Risk Digest — Apr 28 to May 04, 2026

• BTB-UN.TO HELD BTB-UN.TO 2026-05-04 00:00:00
• REI-UN.TO WATCH REI-UN.TO 2026-05-04 00:00:00
• CJT.TO HELD CJT.TO 2026-05-04 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.85
• CRT-UN.TO WATCH CRT-UN.TO 2026-05-04 00:00:00
• BAM.TO HELD BAM.TO 2026-05-05 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.43
• SU.TO HELD SU.TO 2026-05-05 00:00:00 EPS est. 1.30
• WN.TO WATCH WN.TO 2026-05-05 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.98
• IFC.TO WATCH IFC.TO 2026-05-05 00:00:00 EPS est. 4.13

This week’s geopolitical landscape is dominated by escalating tensions between Iran and Iraq, which have significant implications for global energy markets and financial stability. The conflict is causing volatility in oil prices and impacting various sectors, including energy stocks, airlines, and shipping.

#### Top Geopolitical Events – Iran-Iraq Conflict Escalation: Iran’s aggressive rhetoric and threats against US forces in the Strait of Hormuz have reached unprecedented levels, with multiple warnings of potential attacks. This has triggered a fundamental crisis of trust in the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and is causing significant volatility in oil markets, impacting energy stocks, airlines, and shipping sectors.

[SOURCE:1] #### US Policy & Trump – Iran War Clouds Rate Outlook: Fed Governor Kashkari warns that the ongoing Iran conflict could influence future rate decisions, while Bessent sees potential for oil price relief. [SOURCE:2] – Telegram Account Review: Trump posts a notice on Truth Social regarding a review of thousands of Telegram accounts, likely related to content moderation and potential sanctions evasion.

[SOURCE:3] #### Legislative Watch – No Notable Bills: No significant legislative actions impacting market geopolitics this week. [SOURCE:4] #### Canada Watch (MAPLE) – No Conflict of Interest Flags: No new conflict of interest issues flagged for Governor Carney this week.

[SOURCE:5] #### Asset Impact Summary – Oil & Energy: Significant volatility due to Iran-Iraq tensions, impacting energy stocks and oil prices. [SOURCE:6] – Gold & Safe-Haven Assets: Gold prices are expected to rise as a safe-haven asset, while other safe-haven assets like US Treasuries may see increased demand.

[SOURCE:7] – Shipping & Airlines: Increased risk of disruptions in shipping and airline operations due to potential conflicts in the Strait of Hormuz. [SOURCE:8] #### Risk Outlook – High Geopolitical Tension: The Iran-Iraq conflict remains the primary driver of geopolitical risk, with potential for further escalation.

[CONFIDENCE: 9/10] – Short-Term Volatility: Expect continued volatility in oil and energy sectors, with safe-haven assets like gold and US Treasuries seeing increased demand. [TIMEFRAME: short term] – Tail Risk: Escalation of conflict could lead to broader market disruptions and increased risk aversion.

[TAIL RISK: Escalation of conflict leading to broader market disruptions] – Watch For: Any new diplomatic efforts or military actions that could de-escalate tensions. [WATCH FOR: Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions]