| 10Y Yield | 4.29% |
| 2Y Yield | 3.76% |
| Fed Funds | 3.64% |
| Unemployment | 4.30% |
| WTI Oil | 102.86 USD |
| BoC Rate | 2.25% |
| GoC 10Y | 3.50% |
| Unemployment | 6.60% |
| CPI | 167.40 |
| Mortgage 5Y | 3.62% |
| Home Price | 201.84 |
- META WATCH META 2026-04-29 00:00:00 EPS est. 6.75
- MSFT WATCH MSFT 2026-04-29 00:00:00 EPS est. 4.07
- L.TO WATCH L.TO 2026-04-29 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.52
- CNR.TO WATCH CNR.TO 2026-04-29 00:00:00 EPS est. 1.80
- CP.TO WATCH CP.TO 2026-04-29 00:00:00 EPS est. 1.08
- WCP.TO WATCH WCP.TO 2026-04-29 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.23
- BIP-UN.TO WATCH BIP-UN.TO 2026-04-29 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.20
- K.TO WATCH K.TO 2026-04-29 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.78
Week of April 19-25, 2026 This week’s financial landscape in Canada reflects a cautiously optimistic outlook, with key indicators suggesting stability and potential for modest growth. The Bank of Canada (BOC) has maintained its policy rate, and the yield curve is positively sloped, indicating a favorable environment for financial institutions.
The BOC holds at 2.25% with CORRA printing 2.3173%, sitting just above the policy rate as expected. The 5Y mortgage rate at 3.62% reflects a market that is pricing stability rather than further cuts. With inflation largely contained and growth tepid, the BOC has room to hold here without pressure from either direction.
The next move will be data-dependent, and this week’s numbers do not force their hand.
The GoC curve is positively sloped and steepening: 2Y at 2.85%, 5Y at 3.11%, 10Y at 3.48%, with a 10Y-2Y spread of 63 basis points. This is a constructive signal. A steepening curve after a period of inversion historically signals the early stages of a recovery trade. The long end is pricing in modest growth and inflation, not a crisis.
Canadian financials, which earn on the spread, benefit from this shape.
Headline CPI is at 167.4 with core measures well-behaved: CPI-Median at 2.3% and CPI-Trim at 2.2%. Both core reads sit just above the 2.0% target but are not accelerating. This is the ideal scenario for the BOC, close enough to target to justify the current rate, far enough from a problem to avoid a hike.
No urgency in either direction. M2++ growth at 5.89% YoY bears watching as a leading inflation signal, but it is not yet a concern at current levels.
Unemployment at 6.7% remains elevated and is the most notable soft spot in the Canadian picture. This is above the BOC’s comfort zone and keeps the door open for a cut if conditions deteriorate further. The OECD CLI for Canada at 101.61 is a mild positive, sitting above 100 indicates above-trend momentum in the leading indicator composite.
The divergence between a resilient CLI and soft labour data is worth watching. If unemployment moves higher in the next print, the case for a BOC cut strengthens considerably.
CAD/USD holds at 0.7316, up 0.22% on the week. The loonie is stable but structurally weak in the low-to-mid 0.73 range, reflecting the rate differential with the Fed and ongoing tariff uncertainty on Canadian exports. A sustained move above 0.74 would be a meaningful shift in sentiment. TSX is essentially flat: XIU.TO at $49.97 and XIC.TO at $54.13 both off a marginal 0.06-0.07%.
The index is digesting recent moves without conviction in either direction. our equity analysis’s Stock Open Reports flagged signals across all five trading days this week but no TSX signal content was included in this snapshot. Sector-level commentary is held pending full our equity analysis data.
The Canadian macro setup is cautiously constructive. Inflation is contained, the curve is positively sloped, and the CLI is above trend, but labour weakness is the wild card that keeps the BOC on watch. Canadian investors should favour financials and rate-sensitive names while monitoring the April employment print closely; a deterioration in jobs is the clearest trigger for the next BOC cut and a TSX rotation into growth.
*Data sourced from BOC, Statistics Canada, and OECD as of April 25, 2026. TSX sector signal detail pending full our equity analysis pipeline output.*