| 10Y Yield | 4.29% |
| 2Y Yield | 3.76% |
| Fed Funds | 3.64% |
| Unemployment | 4.30% |
| WTI Oil | 102.86 USD |
| BoC Rate | 2.25% |
| GoC 10Y | 3.50% |
| Unemployment | 6.60% |
| CPI | 167.40 |
| Mortgage 5Y | 3.62% |
| Home Price | 201.84 |
- V WATCH V 2026-04-28 00:00:00 EPS est. 3.10
- HOOD WATCH HOOD 2026-04-28 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.43
- MSFT WATCH MSFT 2026-04-29 00:00:00 EPS est. 4.07
- META WATCH META 2026-04-29 00:00:00 EPS est. 6.75
- TIH.TO WATCH TIH.TO 2026-04-28 00:00:00 EPS est. 1.08
- ARX.TO WATCH ARX.TO 2026-04-28 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.70
- ARE.TO WATCH ARE.TO 2026-04-28 00:00:00 EPS est. -0.21
- WCP.TO WATCH WCP.TO 2026-04-29 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.23
US INFLATION & LABOUR CPI sits at 330.2 and PPI at 154.0 as of March, with no fresh April prints yet to confirm direction. The trend into Q1 showed disinflation stalling rather than accelerating, keeping the Fed on hold. Labour demand remains firm with JOLTS at 4.2%, but unemployment has drifted to 4.3%, the highest in the current cycle.
The Fed is watching for labour softness to confirm a credible cut window, and we are not there yet. GLOBAL GROWTH US GDP of +0.12% QoQ as of Q4 2025 is barely positive, and Canada is already in negative territory at -0.15%. Germany’s unemployment at 4.0% signals relative labour resilience in Europe, but PMI and energy headwinds make that a fragile read.
The G7 divergence is real: UK at 5.2% unemployment, Canada at 6.7%. Canada is the weakest large economy in this snapshot on both growth and labour metrics. CENTRAL BANK POSTURE The BOC has moved faster and further, with its policy rate at 2.25% versus the Fed still sitting materially higher.
The US yield curve shows a healthy steepening: 2Y at 3.59%, 10Y at 4.34%, spread of +74.6 bps. Canada’s curve is similarly upward sloping with a 64 bps spread. Neither curve is inverted, which removes the near-term recession signal, but the steepening reflects markets pricing cuts ahead, not growth acceleration.
BOC has more room to ease; the Fed is constrained by sticky inflation and labour data. FISCAL HEALTH World Bank CPI data (2024) shows China near deflation at 0.22%, Italy at 0.98%, and France at 2.0%. This confirms the global disinflationary backdrop outside English-speaking economies.
Canada at 2.38% and Australia at 3.17% are running hotter. No current debt ratio data in this snapshot, so fiscal sustainability commentary is deferred. MACRO OUTLOOK The regime is late-cycle softening: growth slowing, labour cracking at the edges, and inflation sticky enough to keep the Fed sidelined through at least Q2.
Canada is the most vulnerable G7 economy right now, and CAD faces headwinds unless oil recovers or BOC signals a pause. For investors, the bias is toward quality, rate-sensitive names, and hard assets as the Fed cut narrative eventually reasserts itself into H2 2026.