| 10Y Yield | 4.29% |
| 2Y Yield | 3.76% |
| Fed Funds | 3.64% |
| Unemployment | 4.30% |
| WTI Oil | 102.86 USD |
| BoC Rate | 2.25% |
| GoC 10Y | 3.50% |
| Unemployment | 6.60% |
| CPI | 167.40 |
| Mortgage 5Y | 3.62% |
| Home Price | 201.84 |
- HOOD WATCH HOOD 2026-04-28 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.43
- V WATCH V 2026-04-28 00:00:00 EPS est. 3.10
- CLS.TO WATCH CLS.TO 2026-04-27 00:00:00 EPS est. 2.08
- TFII.TO WATCH TFII.TO 2026-04-27 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.61
- ARE.TO WATCH ARE.TO 2026-04-28 00:00:00 EPS est. -0.21
- TIH.TO WATCH TIH.TO 2026-04-28 00:00:00 EPS est. 1.08
- ARX.TO WATCH ARX.TO 2026-04-28 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.70
- WCP.TO WATCH WCP.TO 2026-04-29 00:00:00 EPS est. 0.23
Recent data shows that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stands at 330.2 and the Producer Price Index (PPI) at 154.0, both reflecting a slight cooling trend in inflation compared to peak levels. However, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s comfort zone. The JOLTS openings rate at 4.2% indicates a softening labour market, but it is not collapsing.
Unemployment at 4.3% is gradually increasing, consistent with a late-cycle labour market that is loosening. This suggests the Fed has room to cut rates but no immediate urgency to do so.
US GDP growth is barely positive at +0.12% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ). In contrast, Canada is experiencing a contraction at -0.15% QoQ, with unemployment at 6.7%, indicating significant pressure on the domestic economy. Among G7 countries, Germany, with an unemployment rate of 4.0%, appears to have a relatively tight labour market, but its export-dependent economy faces challenges due to weak global trade.
The UK, with an unemployment rate of 5.2%, sits in the middle. The most critical divergence is between Canada and the US, where Canada is softening faster, which has direct implications for the Canadian dollar (CAD), rate differentials, and TSX exporters.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a policy rate of 2.25%, which is already below the Federal Reserve’s implied range. The Canadian yield curve, with a spread of +63bps between 2s and 10s, is flatter than the US curve (+72bps). Both curves are positively sloped, suggesting that markets expect a modest recovery but not a boom.
Given negative GDP and elevated unemployment, the BoC has more room and reason to cut rates further. The Fed, on the other hand, is on hold unless labour conditions deteriorate. The divergence in rate policies favours a weaker CAD in the near term, which benefits Canadian exporters and hinders US-denominated imports.
There is no World Bank debt ratio data available in this snapshot. This information will be flagged for the next cycle update.
The macroeconomic outlook suggests that Canada is the weaker horse in this scenario. Negative GDP growth, high unemployment, and the likelihood of further BoC rate cuts put pressure on the CAD and domestic consumption-facing equities. The US economy, while slowing, is not breaking, and the positively sloped yield curve indicates that the bond market does not currently price a recession.
For positioning, this macro backdrop favours Canadian exporters with USD revenue, commodity names that benefit from a weaker CAD, and a cautious stance on rate-sensitive domestic plays like REITs and consumer discretionary stocks. The next BoC decision could serve as a potential catalyst for further market movements.