| 10Y Yield | 4.35% |
| 2Y Yield | 3.82% |
| Yield Spread | 0.36% |
| Fed Funds | 0.11% |
| Unemployment | 5.70% |
| WTI Oil | 96.01 USD |
| BoC Rate | 2.25% |
| GoC 10Y | 3.64% |
| Unemployment | 6.90% |
| CPI | 165.90 |
| Mortgage 5Y | 3.68% |
| Home Price | 201.84 |
- Unemployment Claims (2026-04-02 ) Forecast: 212K | Prev: 210K
- Unemployment Rate (2026-04-03 ) Forecast: 4.4% | Prev: 4.4%
Regime call stays: Late-cycle stagflation with active geopolitical premium. VIX at 24.5 is off the 27+ highs from last week — some compression, not resolution. DXY at 99.52 is weak, which historically supports gold (now $4,754) and commodities. Oil at $99.46 has pulled back from the $103+ levels our crypto monitor flagged at week open, but Iran-Israel-Hezbollah multi-front escalation keeps the geopolitical premium alive.
The yield curve is steepening marginally (GoC spread now +1.39% vs +0.37% last week) — that’s actually a mild positive regime shift signal, less flat-curve recession fear. Regime is NEUTRAL today but the setup for relief is building, not deteriorating.
Two macro prints define the next 48 hours: ISM Manufacturing at 10:00 ET today (forecast 52.3, prev 52.4 — essentially flat, no shock expected), and Friday NFP where the prior print was -92K. A second consecutive negative print would be the clearest recession confirmation signal we’ve seen. Trump speaks tonight at 21:00 — any tariff escalation language hits CAD and TSX immediately.
our macro intelligence flagged the BoC at 2.25% vs Fed at 3.64% — that 139bp spread is widening in CAD’s favour directionally as the Fed holds and BoC next FAD is April 16. our stress indicator’s Canada stress score is 78/100 — the GSY.TO collapse on March 10 is a live credit event, not noise. Canadian subprime