Commodities Weekly — Sunday October 25 2026

Oil Climbs as Gold and Silver Tumble

Commodities split sharply this week, with crude oil pushing higher while precious metals fell hard and copper held steady. WTI and Brent rose together to settle above $103 and $111 a barrel respectively, lifting the TSX energy sector even as the broader Toronto market slipped. Gold and silver sold off together, dragging the TSX materials sector down far more than any other move covered here, while copper’s near-flat week suggests growth expectations have held up even as the haven bid unwound. The US dollar index barely moved, but the loonie firmed against the greenback on the back of stronger crude, and the US 10-year yield fell even as gold failed to benefit. Over the next three months, a cluster of central-bank decisions starting October 28, followed by US growth and inflation data, will test whether this divergence between firmer oil, weaker metals and a steadier dollar can hold.

Energy

Oil climbed over the week, with WTI settling at $103.27 a barrel, up 1.83%, and Brent at $111.70, up 1.67%. The two benchmarks moved in step, which points to a broad repricing of crude rather than a regional quirk. Natural gas pulled the other way, easing to $3.05 and down 2.12% on the week. That split, firmer oil against softer gas, is a familiar pattern when crude carries a geopolitical premium while gas trades more on storage and weather. For Canadian energy equities, firmer crude is the more important signal: the TSX energy sector gained 0.55% over the week to 491.69, a rare pocket of strength in a Toronto market that otherwise lost ground. With Canada a major crude exporter, oil holding above the $100 mark should keep support under producer cash flows and dividends even as other parts of the market wobble. On inflation, the setup is mixed rather than one-directional: higher crude raises energy input costs just as cheaper natural gas works the other way for utility and heating bills, so the net effect on headline inflation readings is unlikely to be large on its own. The bigger question for the next stretch is whether crude’s firmness holds or fades, since supply-side signals over the period have pointed in different directions at different times. Investors in energy names should watch whether the TSX energy sector’s gain can extend if crude levels hold near here.

Metals

Precious metals had a rough week while copper was comparatively steady. Gold fell to $4,007.90 an ounce, down 4.14%, and silver dropped further still to $53.95, down 5.34%, the sharpest move among the metals covered here. That kind of decline in both gold and silver together, rather than one holding up while the other slides, suggests a pullback in haven positioning after a run-up rather than a shift tied to only one metal. Copper was far steadier, slipping just 0.36% to $6.51 a pound. The gap between copper’s near-flat week and silver’s and gold’s sharp declines is worth noting: copper tends to track industrial demand and growth expectations, while gold and silver lean more on haven flows and real yields. A steady copper price alongside tumbling precious metals points to a market where growth expectations have held up even as the safe-haven bid has unwound. The US dollar index was little changed over the week, down just 0.03% to 101.81, so the dollar itself does not explain the size of the move in gold and silver. The TSX materials sector felt the precious-metals slide directly, falling 8.54% to 41.15, by far the heaviest sector move in this report and a reminder of how exposed Canadian materials names are to gold and silver pricing. The pullback in gold and silver, against copper’s resilience, is the metals story of the week.

The Dollar, Rates and Demand

The loonie firmed against the US dollar over the week, with USD/CAD down 0.83% to 1.4002, even as the broader US dollar index barely moved, down 0.03% to 101.81. That combination points to a Canadian-dollar-specific move rather than a broad greenback shift, and it lines up with firmer crude, since oil strength typically supports the loonie given Canada’s export profile. The US 10-year yield fell 11.0 basis points to 4.988%, a move consistent with the pullback in gold and silver being more about unwinding haven positioning than about real yields rising, since falling yields would normally be supportive of precious metals, not a drag. Equity tone was mixed and sector-specific: the S&P 500 slipped 0.47% to 7,623.68 and the S&P/TSX Composite fell 1.07% to 35,788.20, with the TSX drag concentrated in materials while its energy sector held a small gain. That divergence, energy outperforming within a weaker TSX while materials sank, is the clearest cross-asset pattern of the week and ties the commodity story directly to Canadian equity performance.

The Three Months Ahead

The next week brings a cluster of central-bank decisions that will shape the backdrop for commodities: the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve both decide on Wednesday, October 28, with the Bank of Canada’s decision accompanied by its Monetary Policy Report, followed by the European Central Bank on Thursday, October 29. US data due the same week, including Personal Income and Outlays and the GDP Advance Estimate for the third quarter on October 29 and the Employment Cost Index on October 30, will inform how those decisions are read against falling yields and softer gold and silver. Further out, the Employment Situation report on November 6, CPI on November 10 and PPI on November 13 will test whether the US 10-year yield’s decline over the past week continues, with implications for real yields and precious-metals demand. Another Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve decision pair falls on December 9, with the European Central Bank following on December 17. Statistics Canada inflation, Labour Force Survey and monthly GDP releases are due on their usual monthly rhythm, though no specific dates are listed in this window. For oil, no OPEC+ meeting date is scheduled here, so the oil-and-Brent firmness seen this week should be watched against supply headlines as they emerge rather than against a fixed date.

Vanguard Commodities Analyst Written by Vanguard, with Atlas Commodities Weekly · Sunday, October 25, 2026 · Weekly commodities summary